The NBA draft is now less than a week away and with the NBA Finals out of the way basketball fans are now turning their attention towards next Thursday when the draft is scheduled to go down. This is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable drafts in recent memory. There are two things we know for sure with this draft. First, and foremost, is that Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin will be a member of the Los Angeles Clippers this time next week and second is that if you need a point guard this now is the time to grab one. This draft is tremendously deep at the position with no fewer than eight point men considered to be locks to go in the first round with potentially up to 11 coming off the board by the end of the round. After that it is anyone’s guess what is about to go down. So here is the low down on how things may go next week.
1. Los Angeles Clippers – As was already mentioned Blake Griffin will be the guy here. The Clippers have even gone so far as to say they had decided on him being their guy if they ended up with the top pick in the draft.
2. Memphis Grizzlies – Initial reports had the Grizzlies looking long and hard at taking Spanish wunderkind Ricky Rubio here. Thing of it is point is not the biggest need for the Grizzlies as Mike Conley came on strong down the stretch after Kyle Lowry was moved to Houston. The Grizz need to enhance the low post presence more than anything else and conventional wisdom says Connecticut center Hasheem Thabeet is the likely selection here. But with Thabeet canceling a workout with Memphis over the weekend that remains up in the air and Rubio becomes more and more of a possibility. If it is Rubio it is likely a selection for someone else or they are going to be dealing Conley to another team.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder – There has been some thought out there that the Thunder have an interest in Rubio as well but I just do not see it. They already have Russell Westbrook who was one of the big surprises in the league as a rookie this past year and the offense really runs through Kevin Durant anyway so what would be the point of taking another point guard here? Like the Grizz the Thunder are in need of a low post presence but #3 is probably a bit high to take Jordan Hill if Thabeet ends up in Memphis. This leaves them with the prospect of taking a shooting guard with the pick. If Thabeet goes to Memphis then expect Arizona State’s James Harden, considered the best scorer available, to go here.
4. Sacramento Kings – The Kings biggest need right now is finding a point guard. Beno Udrih is a solid point guard but he is clearly better suited at being a role player off the bench than being a starter. The Kings would love for Rubio to drop to them at four and that remains a very real possibility. A lot of reports have the team becoming enamored with UCLA point guard Jrue Holliday who has apparently wowed a lot of people with his pre-draft workouts and his tenacions on-the-ball defense would be a welcome addition to a team that surrendered over 109 points last season.
5. Washington Wizards – The Wizards have a few different needs. They need a point guard and/or a shooting guard to potentially fill Gilbert Arenas’ shoes. Arenas was, and may still be, the player whom the Wizards built the franchise around. I question whether or not his knee is going to let him still be an elite player who can fill it up at 25+ points a night. Their backcourt is currently a motley crew of a hobbled Arenas, a group of aging veterans and unproven talent. But, the Wizards also need some frontcourt help as Antawn Jamison reaches his mid-30s and Brendan Haywood is coming off of a major injury. Arizona’s Jordan Hill is the best available prospect at this stage and if Harden is not available they will likely go with Hill here.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves – The Wolves need a point guard plain and simple. Randy Foye was supposed to be that guy when they got him three years ago. There were many who thought Foye was going to be the best player in the 2006 draft but he has struggled mightily to stay healthy and is really more of a scorer than he is a distributer. Memphis’ season really took off when John Calipari moved Tyreke Evans from the two spot to the lead guard spot so look for the Wolves’ to nab him to be their floor general.
7. Golden State Warriors – This team seems to be a bit of a mess personnel wise. Monta Ellis was supposed to be the guy they were building around until he got into a scooter accident that shredded up his ankle putting him out of action until January. This team is loaded with a lot of young talent and veteran cast-offs that wore their welcomes out elsewhere. A lot of the buzz around the Warriors has them going against Ellis’ wishes and taking a point guard. With that said, if they opt to go that route, then expect them to pick between whichever player is remaining between Evans, Holliday, and Brandon Jennings. Jennings is probably the best fit for Don Nelson’s open court run-and-gun offense. He tends to favor smallish uber-quick guards who can push the ball up and down the floor at a moment’s notice. Ty Lawson would probably be the best fit for this offense but seven is a bit high for him and Jennings is seen as someone with a bit more upside and scoring ability. A dark horse here could be Syracuse’s Jonny Flynn who has reportedly been impressing a lot of teams and is said to be rocketing up a lot of draft boards around the league.
8. New York Knicks – It is widely believed that the Knicks covet Stephen Curry and have promised to take him if he is available when their turn comes. The Knicks have needs all over the place primarily they need a big man and a scoring guard who can shoot consistently. Curry would give them the wing man whose shot selection is sound and who can score from anywhere on the floor. He would also give them some toughness and his leadership at Davidson was unquestionable.
9. Toronto Raptors – The Raptors need to find a third scorer to pair with Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani and with Jermaine O’Neal being shipped to Miami for Shawn Marion and with Marion due to hit the open market this summer they also need find some low post and/or rebounding help for Bosh. USC’s Demar DeRozan looks to be the best scorer available at this spot in the draft.
10. Milwaukee Bucks – With power forward Charlie Villanueva hitting the free agent market and the Buck likely being unable to afford re-signing him power forward becomes a big need for the Bucks along with point guard. Incumbants Ramon Sessions and Luke Ridinour are solid players but neither is really suited for the starting role. They are both solid ball handlers but neither are exceptionally strong scorers. With the depth of quality talent at the point in this draft the Bucks will likley opt for a point man and Jonny Flynn looks to be that best available at this spot. A darkhorse here could be UNC’s Tyler Hansbrough who, reportedly, measured a lot bigger than scouts were expecting him to and has impressed at workouts. He could sneak into the lottery and end up going to a team starved for a power forward and is not convinced DeJuan Blair does have the size or stability in his knees to be a long term solution.
11. New Jersey Nets – The Nets are pretty well set in the backcourt with Devin Harris and Vince Carter and at center with Brook Lopez coming off a rookie season that only saw him get better as the season went on. With Yi Jianlin, Josh Boone, and Sean Williams failing to live up to expectations the Nets are in dire need of quality forwards to go with the aforementioned trio. Earl Clark looks to be the top rated forward still available here but he is not terribly strong in the halfcourt game and DeJaun Blair or Hansbrough would probably be better fits. Look for the Nets to go with whichever forward they feel fits their system the best.
12. Charlotte Bobcats – It seems that everyone and their brother has the Bobcats taking Duke’s Gerald Henderson here which is a bit of a head scratcher to me. The Bobcats two biggest needs are a go-to-scorer who can drop 20+ a night or a low post player to help take some of the weight off of Emeka Okafor’s shoulders. Henderson does not fit either of these bills. There is no questioning his talent but he never emerged as that superstar type of player everyone thought he would at Duke. Given Michael Jordan’s love of everything Carolina don’t be shocked if he takes fellow Tar Heel alum Tyler Hansbrough here.
13. Indiana Pacers – The Pacers need a true low post banger. Roy Hibbert is a bit of a slug and has always been a bit soft and Troy Murphy really operates better on the wing as opposed to down in the post. Hibbert was fairly productive as a rookie but they need someone who is going to give them more than 14 minutes a night. Blair seems to be the favorite and Hansbrough could always land here as well.
14. Phoenix Suns – Phoenix just needs to get younger. Steve Nash is 35, Shaquille O’Neal is 37, and Grant Hill is 36 and all three started the bulk of Phoneix’s games this past season and are showing signs of slowing down a bit. Shaq is at his best when he gets a couple of days off between games and struggles to play 30 minutes when he has to go on back-to-back nights and Hill is more suited to being a sixth man off the bench playing 25 minutes a game these days. Wake’s James Johnson or Louisville’s Earl Clark are probably the best fits for Phoenix. They are both athletic and big enough to play both forward positions and excel in open court offenses.
15. Detroit Pistons – The Pistons need to find a low post player this summer. With Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and Rodney Stuckey on the roster Detroit is set in terms of perimeter scoring but it has nobody to compliment them under the bucket. James Johnson and Gani Lawal, before he decided to return to Georgia Tech, both got mentioned here but B. J. Mullens, once seen as the best prospect in the ‘08 freshman class, looks to be the strongest contender for the Pistons. Hansbrough could also be a contender here and would fit in well with the rough and tumble city of Detroit.
16. Chicago Bulls – The Bulls are still in search of that physical low post presence. Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah are big and ahtletic but are more finesse players than power players and neither one has a good feel for the half court game. Look for the Bulls to focus on the trio of Blair, Mullens, and Hansbrough with this pick. If none of those three are left then do not be surprised if they take a guard in the event Ben Gordon ends up elsewhere this summer. Maynor or Jeff Teague could be fits here. Both are seen as point guards but are the same type of player that Gordon is in the sense they look shoot first and are better scorers than distributers.
17. Phildadelphia 76ers – Philly needs to find a point guard. Andre Miller is a free agent and could possibly return but even with Miller the cupboard is rather bare as Lou Williams has yet to develop into the point guard the team hoped he would by now. The Sixers seem to have narrowed it down to either Maynor or Lawson. It just depends on what first year coach Eddie Jordan prefers. Maynor is the better scoring threat but Lawson is more of pure point guard and arguably the best distributer available in the draft.
18. Minnesota Timberwolves – A lot depends on what they take at #6. A wing player like Terrence Williams or Austin Daye seem to be the most likely pick here. Mike Miller never seemed to find his niche last season, Ryan Gomes is a nice player but has never developed into the player folks thought he would after a strong rookie season, and Corey Brewer is beginning to look more and more like a bust.
19. Atlanta Hawks – With Mike Bibby’s pending free agency and Acie Law rumored to be on the outs in Atlanta the Hawks are reportedly leaning towards taking a point guard this week. The Hawks will likely end up with whomever is left between Lawson, Maynor, and Teague with UCLA’s Darren Collison or Florida’s Nick Calathes being possibilities if the aforementioned all come off the board prior to the Hawks’ selection.
20. Utah Jazz – It is a widely held belief that, with Carlos Boozer’s impending free agency, Utah covets Hansbrough and he will not slip past the 20th spot. However, Hansbrough has been generating good buzz on the workout circuit and could go earlier than twenty. Other than potentially filling Boozer’s spot the Jazz does not have a lot of holes to fill and will look at taking someone to add some depth to the team if Hansbrough is gone. Someone like Daye or Arizona’s Chase Budinger would be good options to fill in for the inevitable trip Andrei Kirilenko makes to the injured list.
21. New Orleans Hornets – The Hornets need a true low post presence and could use a third scoring option to go with Chris Paul and David West. Someone like Budinger or Pittsburgh’s Sam Young seem like good fits for the Hornets. They both run the floor well and can shoot the three. Young could be the better fit here as he runs the floor and can score in the halfcourt set as well.
22. Dallas Mavericks – Jason Kidd is 36 years old and is starting to show signs of slowing a bit and the Mavs need to start thinking about who his successor is going to be. Teague would be a good fit for the Mavs and if he is not available look for the Mavs to go with a forward who brings some rebounding skill to the floor. James Johnson would get consideration if he is still on the board with Sam Young being a possibility as well.
23. Sacramento Kings – After point guard finding a small forward who can score is the Kings next priority. They should be set in the low post with blossoming young stars in Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes at power forward and center respectively. Andres Nocioni is a nice player but is more of a defensive stopper and spot up jump shooter. Budinger will get strong consideration here and would give the Kings some needed athleticism and versatility on the wing. Omri Casspi and Sam Young are possible options here as well.
24. Portland Trail Blazers – The Blazers are still in search of that elusive point guard to get them over the hump. Fortunately, for them, shooting guard Brandon Roy is comfortable having the offense flow through him and he is adept at handling the ball. Last year’s top pick Jerryd Bayless spent most of the season on the bench and showed no real signs of improvement as the season wore on. It is debatable as to whether the Blazers will find a point guard they like at 24 and could opt to go for a small forward instead as Martell Webster is coming off a significant injury and Travis Outlaw has yet to become the player everyone thinks he should be. Darren Collison and Nick Calathes look to be the top point men available with Budinger, Casspi, and DaJuan Summers the top prospects potentially available.
25. Oklahoma City Thunder – If they do not go with Thabeet at number three the Thunder are likely to go with the best available post player at 25. Xavier’s Derrick Brown, USC’s Taj Gibson, and Arizona State’s Jeff Pendergraph look to be the top inside options towards the tail end of the first round.
26. Chicago Bulls – If the Bulls go backcourt at 16 they will go front court with this pick. Brown, Pendergraph, or Gibson would be the top post men available with UNC’s Wayne Ellington, LSU’s Marcus Thornton, and Florida State’s Toney Douglas the top shooting guard prospects.
27. Memphis Grizzlies – The Grizzlies are loaded with perimeter talent and will look for the best available post player. A lot will depend on whether or not they grab Thabeet with the second pick. If they do not grab Thabeet then Gonzaga’s Josh Heytvelt is likely the best available post player who projects as a potential center in the NBA. Pendergraph, Gibson, Brown, and potentially Missouri’s Demarre Carrol look to be the top power forward prospects.
28. Minnesota Timberwolves – With no true center prospects the Wolves are likely to go with the top available player. They could opt for Josh Heytvelt but are likely to look at someone like DaJuan Summers, Austin Daye, Omri Casspi or Ellington.
29. Los Angeles Lakers – With point guard Derek Fisher in his twilight years and Lamar Odom and Trevor Ariza entering free agency the Lakers are likely to with the best available point guard or forward. Patrick Mills, Calathes, or Collison are potential PG options with Gibson, Summers, or Brown as potential options at forward.
30. Cleveland Cavaliers – The Cavs will look to get scoring help for LeBron. Expect them to hone in on someone like Ellington, Toney Douglas, or Marcus Thornton.
Ultimately this draft is short on big time elite talent but looks to be deep on talent that should develop into NBA starters.
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