It is being reported that top free agent pitcher John Lackey is in Boston to take a team physical Monday. This is an indication that the team is close to agreement that would bring Lackey to Boston.
This news comes on the heels of reports that the hopes of re-signing Jason Bay are waning in Boston.
The Red Sox have always been rumored to have an interest in signing Lackey this winter with Bay being the top priority. Lackey is a quality starter, who, when healthy, can put up Cy Young caliber numbers, but, is this a good move for the Sox?
He is only 5-7 with a 4.66 ERA over his career against the Yankees and is 2-5 with a 5.75 ERA lifetime at Fenway Park. Those are not numbers that would inspire me to want him on my team if I am the Red Sox. It is rumored that his deal is going to be similar to that of the contract A. J. Burnett got from the Yankees last winter.
That seems to be an awfully steep price for a guy who is arguably going to be the third best starter on the team next spring behind Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. It potentially opens a Pandora’s Box for them given Beckett’s pending free agency. If you pay Lackey $18 million per season then you are looking at paying Beckett at least that much if not more. Theo Epstein should consider himself lucky he managed to lock Lester up through the 2013 season at a reasonable price.
Honestly, it seems like Lackey is commanding this type of deal based solely on what he did three seasons ago in 2007 when he won 19 games, led the league with a 3.01 ERA, and finished 3rd in the Cy Young balloting. In the two years since then he has struggled to win just 23 games and has posted a 3.79 ERA. The Red Sox may want to take a step back and look at the fiasco that has been Barry Zito in San Francisco.
Zito was a similar free agent to Lackey in that he won a Cy Young Award in 2002 and turned that into what, at the time, was the richest free agent deal ever given a pitcher. The year Zito won the Cy Young he went 23-5 with a 2.75 ERA. In the four years following his Cy Young season leading up to free agency Zito averaged a 14-12 record with a 3.86 ERA. He was just an okay pitcher those four years but still managed to land the huge free agent deal.
Given the premium that is placed on quality starting pitching it seems as though general managers are fooling themselves into believing Lackey is worth that kind of an investment, but, is he really?
The pending Lackey deal is leading to tons of speculation as to what the Sox will do next. The consensus is they are now giving up on re-signing Jason Bay and will lead to the team pursuing other avenues to beef up the lineup. The belief is the addition of Lackey will lead to the Sox packaging Clay Buchholz in a deal to land a middle of the order bat.
Boston has been rumored to have an interest in San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez and Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera. Reports have the Padres not aggressively looking to unload Gonzalez as his salary for next season is under $5 million which is a manageable number for San Diego.
Cabrera seems like the guy who is probably the most available as Detroit looks to shed a significant portion of its payroll for next season. The Sox would likely have to start with a package built around Buchholz, Daniel Bard, and possibly Casey Kelly and a couple of hitting prospects for good measure to land Cabrera, but, it would be worth it if it means getting back to the postseason in 2010.
Cabrera is only 26 so giving up a bevy of prospects is worth it given he probably still has at least 7 to 10 more dominant seasons left in him.
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