2010 NFL Draft: Breaking Down the Running Back Prospects
Depending on which players stay in school next year’s running back class is pretty solid. It is just about on par with the ’09 class that saw three players go in the first round. Next year could see as many as three go in the first round with C. J. Spiller being the gem that is a first round lock. The depth of this year’s class will hinge on what players like Jahvid Best and Jonathan Dwyer decide to do.
C. J. Spiller (Clemson, Sr.)
Spiller is widely considered the best back in this draft and some consider him to be the best offensive skill player available. He is the perfect example of how guys can greatly enhance their draft stock by coming back for a senior season. Last year at this time Spiller was considered a third round prospect and now he is considered a top ten talent.
There literally is not much Spiller does not do on the football field. He averaged 5.6 yards per carry, scored 12 rushing touchdowns, averaged 14 yards per catch, caught 36 passes and 4 touchdown passes, and took one punt and four kickoffs back for scores this season. Altogether he scored 21 touchdowns and had 2,680 all purpose yards.
The only knock on him is he is on the thin side, he does have the frame to add a few pounds of muscle though, and he does not excel at running between the tackles.
He catches the ball extremely well out of the backfield, excels at making people miss in the open field, and displays break away speed when he turns the corner. He reminds me a lot of Philadelphia’s Brian Westbrook.
Spiller is easily a top ten caliber talent, but, will he end up being a top ten pick? A lot of teams picking at the top of the draft have bigger needs than running back and Spiller could be one of those guys who slips into the middle of the first round because of it.
With Clinton Portis’ future in Washington up in the air the Redskins could grab Spiller, but, if Shanahan becomes the next head coach in D. C. it seems unlikely the they would take a back that high in the draft.
The Browns could opt for a back but it seems more likely that new GM Mike Holmgren would opt for a quarterback he likes instead.
Al Davis loves guys with track speed and Spiller fits the bill.
With Steve Slaton falling out of favor in Houston it seems highly unlikely he will drop further than the Texans who are currently trending to pick in the late teens.
Jahvid Best (California, Jr.)
Best is widely considered the second best draft eligible back but has yet to put his name in the draft. He came into the season in Spiller’s spot being touted as the top back in the nation and a potential top ten pick. Best sat out the Golden Bears last three games of the regular season due to a pair of concussions and his stock as slipped a bit as a result. During his three years at Cal he has missed significant time each season due to injury and there are now a lot of questions as to whether he can survive a full NFL season.
From a skill standpoint he is arguably as good as Spiller. He catches the ball well out of the backfield and is a threat to score whenever he gets his hands on the ball. Best is probably a tick slower than Spiller and has the injury issues but those are the only real differences between the two.
Best still has a year of eligibility left and there has been no news as to what he intends on doing. He is still considered a first round prospect, but, one wonders if he is considering coming back for another season to show he can play a full season without getting hurt.
If he were to come out he could end up going to Houston if Spiller goes higher in the draft. If not, it is conceivable he would drop out of the first round.
Green Bay is reportedly looking for a back to potentially supplant Ryan Grant and they could have an interest. At the very least he would give the Pack a nice compliment to the bruising Grant and a back who can catch the ball out of the backfield.
The Pats could have an interest as well with Laurence Maroney continuously residing in Belichick’s dog house and Fred Taylor in the twilight of his career.
If he drops to the second round then the Lions could be a possibility as well as the Browns, Skins, or Raiders if they pass on Spiller in the first.
Jonathan Dwyer (Georgia Tech, Jr.)
Dwyer is considered to be the most dynamic “traditional” between the tackles running back prospect eligible for next spring’s draft. Dwyer has the prototypical size teams look for in a lead back checking in at a shade under six feet and weighing over 230 pounds. Dwyer excels at running between the tackles but has also flashed big play ability averaging 6.5 yards per carry over the last two seasons for Georgia Tech.
Given how little the Yellow Jackets throw the ball it is hard to say whether Dwyer will excel at catching the ball out of the back field and how well he will fare in picking up blitzes.
Dwyer does still have a year of eligibility and there is no news on which way he is leaning. If Best declares for the draft Dwyer is seen as a late first, early second round prospect. If Best does not come out in the draft then Dwyer’s prospects of going in the first round become better.
Regardless of what happens Dwyer still has a very real shot of being drafted in the first round. With LaDanian Tomlinson having seen better days in San Diego the Chargers could have a very real interest in a back like Dwyer to compliment scat back Darren Sproles.
The Patriots could also have an interest in Dwyer as well.
If he slides into the second round the Lions, Browns, Redskins, and Seahawks could be potential landing spots for a back like Dwyer.
Ryan Matthews (Fresno State, Jr.)
The nation’s leading rusher has already announced his intentions to surrender his final year of eligibility and enter the NFL draft. Matthews skill set is very similar to that of Dwyer’s. Dwyer is a slightly crisper runner who is a step quicker. Matthews is probably slightly better at running between the tackles then Dwyer is, but, he does not have that home run speed that Spiller and Best have.
He is also probably only a two down back in the NFL as he does not have the best of hands coming out of the back field and is only adequate when it comes to picking up the blitz. There are also some durability issues with Matthews as he missed at least one game in each of his three years due to injury.
Matthews’ draft status will hinge largely on whether or not Dwyer puts his name in the hat. Dwyer is considered the more complete player but their skill sets are very similar. If Dwyer stays put then Matthews could slip into his spot and his potential suitors would be similar to that of Dwyer’s.
However it all plays out Matthews seems to be a lock to go no later than the second round.
Keep an Eye On
Joe McKnight (USC, Jr.) - McKnight still has a year left, but, given the recent questions surrounding his eligibility it seems like a foregone conclusion that he will be entering the draft next spring. At six feet tall and 190 pounds McKnight is a long and lean athlete. He has big play ability and the frame to add some extra weight. McKnight also catches the ball well out of the back field and can return punts. He is currently considered to be a late second round prospect.
Montario Hardesty (Tennessee, Sr.) - Hardesty gives you a little bit of everything, but, does not really excel at any one thing. He has good size and runs well between the tackles. Montario lacks that break away speed that scouts look for in runners. Hardesty catches the ball well out of the back field but struggles in pass protection at times. Durability is a concern as he is a fifth year senior due to a medical red shirt and has some issues with his knees. His lack of elite speed and injury concerns are what will likely keep him from going any higher than the third or fourth round. He looks like a guy who could carve out a nice career as a back up running back who gets 100 to 150 carries a year.
Toby Gerhart (Stanford, Sr.) - Gerhart runs like a bull in a China shop and is probably the toughest inside runner available in next spring’s draft. He excels at simply putting his shoulder down and running through tacklers. The biggest knock on Gerhart is he lacks any real suddenness or ability to change direction and is basically a straight line downhill runner and lacks top end speed to out run defensive backs and linebackers in the open field. He holds in own in pass protection but is not a factor catching the ball out of the back field due to his lack of speed and agility. Given his lack of top end speed and agility he is looking at being a mid-round pick who could go as high as the third round. There have been comparisons to Mike Alstott.
Anthony Dixon (Mississippi State, Sr.) – Dixon is very similar to Gerhart in that he is big and beefy and runs straight ahead. He is slightly better out of the back field than Gerhart is though. What will ultimately lead to Gerhart being taken over Dixon is off the field stuff. Dixon has had issues with discipline and keeping his weight in check while Gerhart has no real known issues.
Ben Tate (Auburn, Sr.) – Tate is similar to Hardesty in that he does a lot of things well but does not excel at any one thing. He lacks top end speed and is not the most elusive back in the world. Tate has decent size, is a solid receiver, but is a bit inconsistent when it comes to picking up blitzes. Ben is a very tough and physical runner who can run it up the gut but does not have the speed to run away from defenders when he reaches the second level. One of the biggest things that stands out about Tate’s senior year is he struggled to produce against the better defenses in the SEC. Tate’s fate is probably similar to that of Hardesty’s and can probably expect to go somewhere in the third or fourth round.
Dexter McCluster (Mississippi, Sr.) – McCluster is an intriguing prospect. He likely will not be a first or second round pick given he is, at best, 5′ 8″ and weighs under 170 pounds, but, players with his kind of speed tend to get drafted higher than they should. It is unlikely that he will ever make his mark as an every down back in the league, but, with his speed and pass catching ability he can have a nice career as a scat back and/or a slot receiver. His versatility makes him a good bet to go as high as the third round, and, I would not be shocked if a team rolled the dice on him in the second.
LeGarrette Blount (Oregon, Sr.) – Blount might be the most intriguing if not infamous running back prospect in next year’s draft. Prior to the incident after the Boise State game Blount was considered to be a potential first round pick. He definitely has first round talent but he comes with a ton of baggage. He is a very punishing, bruising runner who racks up tons of yards after initial contact. Blount is probably the most physically imposing back available in next year’s draft. He is, however, only a two down back who gives a team very little in the passing game. He also lacks top end speed, but, he does have good speed for a player his size. It is tough to see a team willing to invest anything more than a fourth round pick on a guy like Blount given all of the off the field problems he had in his year-and-a-half at Oregon. I would not be shocked if he went higher than that given his talent though.
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