Overview
After running out to a 4-1 start the Falcons floundered to a 9-7 record after struggling with injuries to key players. Essentially the Falcons have beaten up on the soft teams and lost the tough games on their schedule this season. On a positive note the Falcons posted back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in franchise history. On the downside they missed out on the playoffs. The Falcons are currently slated to pick 19th in the first round.
Assets
Matt Ryan, 2008’s first round selection, is showing signs of being the Falcons’ franchise quarterback for years to come. He led the Falcons to the playoffs last season and has been off to a solid start this season. Ryan started the season strong but faded towards the end as he battled through some nagging injuries.
The Falcons battled injuries at running back all season long with Michael Turner missing significant time with ankle anf foot injuries and backup Jerious Norwood missing 6 games due to various injuries. One positive at running back was the emergence of Jason Snelling as a productive runner for the Falcons. Running back can be considered one of the team’s deepes positions right now.
Roddy White posted his third consecutive season of 80+ catches and 1,150 or more yards to go along with a career high of 11 TDs. White is as good as any at the WR in the league.
Tony Gonzalez has said he intends on playing in 2010 and still had enough in the tank to catch 83 balls for the Dirty Birds this season.
Second year linebacker Curtis Lofton has been a tackling machine taking over for Keith Brooking this season.
Before losing him to a season ending injury DT Peria Jerry was showing signs of being the run-stuffer the Falcons have been lacking since Gilbert Brown was sent packing.
Johnathan Babineaux is an emerging star at DT and led the team with 6 sacks and 10 tackles-for-loss.
Second year cornerback Brent Grimes had a solid year with six interceptions and 13 passes defensed.
Liabilities/Needs
The defense, in general, was not strong for the Falcons this past season. They surrendered 20 points and 349 yards per game. It was okay but needs to show improvement if the team wants to get back into the playoffs next season.
At the age of 31 John Abraham is showing signs of slowing and the Falcons efforts to find another pass rusher to pair with him have been fruitless over the past couple of years. Recent draft picks Lawrence Sidbury, Jr. and Jamaal Anderson have failed to produce any returns for the Falcons. This season marked the first year of his career in which he failed to post double digits in sacks in a season in which he played all 16 games.
After Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez they are lacking any real depth in the passing game. Michael Jenkins is solid but he does not produce like a #2 wide receiver in the NFL.
In general, the secondary is nothing special, and it lacks any real depth to speak of.
Aside from Babineaux the Falcons front seven lacks anyone else that offenses need to truly pay attention to any more. Abraham used to be one of those guys but his play dropped off significantly this season.
Even though Gonzalez is back for another season they still need to think about who is going to replace him when he does retire. It seems unlikely they would spend a high pick on a tight end but look for them to possibly consider taking one in the 3rd or 4th round.
Bottom Line
All signs point to the Falcons looking to beef up defensively in the next draft and their appear to be a handful of safeties and linebackers on track to be mid first round selections.
Florida’s Carlos Dunlap is going to be the wild card of next spring’s draft a-la Warren Sapp when he came out of school and saw his stock plummet due to a reported positive drug test. Dunlap was considered to be a top five prospect prior to his DUI arrest the week before the SEC Championship Game. Dunlap could see his stock fall in a similar fashion and will be awfully tempting for a Falcons team in need of a dynamic play-maker up front with Abraham apparently entering the twilight of his career.
Michigan’s Brandon Graham is a guy who played DL in college but many think might be better suited to play outside in a 3-4 defense. He could be a guy the Falcons look at in the first round.
Safety Earl Thomas (Texas) is someone the Falcons would love to grab to upgrade the secondary, but, he is likely to be off the board by the 19th pick of the draft.
USC’s Everson Griffen is likely to be the best pure end on the board when the Falcons pick only taking him that high would probably be considered quite a reach for the Falcons. Griffen is considered a fringe first round/early second round prospect right now.
USC safety Taylor Mays is tremendously gifted athletically but there have been a lot of questions about his coverage skills in the secondary. He is a sound tackler and loves to deliver the big hit but was often caught out of position in pass coverage for USC this season. One begins to wonder if he ends up going the route Thomas Davis did with the Panthers in that he has the size to play linebacker and the team that lands him may just convert him to that position. Mays might be considered something of a reach here as well given how far his stock has dropped this winter.
Texas’ Earl Thomas is another safety whom experts are projecting as a mid first round talent, but his stock is rising right now and could be off the board before the Falcons pick.
Penn State’s Navarro Bowman and Texas’ Sergio Kindle are a pair of outside linebackers the Falcons could target in the middle of the first round. Curtis Lofton and Mike Peterson have been good but neither is terribly dynamic in terms of stuffing the run or pressuring the quarterback.
Alabama cornerback Kareem Jackson seems to have surpassed Javier Arenas as the top cornerback prospect at ‘Bama and is now considered a mid to late first round prospect. Boise’s Kyle Wilson is another corner moving up the charts to keep an eye on if the Falcons look to address their cornerback needs in the first round.
It seems unlikely they would spend a top pick on a receiver but do not rule out the possibility of going after someone like Minnesota’s Eric Decker or USC’s Damian Williams in the second round, or, Texas’ Jordan Shipley or Cincinnati’s Mardy Gilyard in the third round.
With tight end Tony Gonzalez getting up there in years the Falcons could also target someone like Wisconsin’s Garrett Graham or Oregon’s Ed Dickson in the early rounds.
Cal’s Syd’Quan Thompson, Oklahoma State’s Perrish Cox, or Wake Forest’s Brandon Ghee could also be potential corner prospects to upgrade the secondary.
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