League’s Elite

Not a lot has changed in terms of the league’s elite teams this season.  The favorites in the East still look to be the Cavs, Celtics, and Magic and in the West the Lakers, Spurs, and Nuggets appear to still be the teams to beat.

As long as Ron Artest behaves and Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum stay healthy the Lakers should stay in the mix.

The Spurs simply reloaded bringing in Antonio McDyess, Richard Jefferson, and drafting DeJuan Blair to go with Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker.

The Nuggets keep the core together from last year and added Ty Lawson to be an offensive spark plug off the bench.

The Cavs added Shaq to the mix and hope he can get them over the top, but, any team with LeBron is going to contend in the East.

The Celtics added some veteran depth off the bench by bringing in Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels.  Wallace gives them some scoring and defense in the post and Daniels gives them a versatile athlete who can play the 2 and 3 and score off the bench.

The Magic lost Hedo Turkoglu but added Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson and coaxed Jason Williams out of retirment.

Teams to Keep an Eye On

I like how the Raptors are coming together.  Andrea Bargnani looks like he is ready to be a star this year, Chris Bosh is in his contract year so he has soemthing to prove, and the addition of Turkoglu just makes them so much more versatile.  The big questions for them will be whether they defend or not this year.  Poor defense was the downfall of the Raptors last season.

The Bulls gave the Celtics all they could handle in the playoffs last spring and Derrick Rose is definitely a star in the making.  If Luol Deng stays healthy and can help fill the void left by Ben Gordon jumping to Detroit and Joakim Noah can continue to play the way he did against Boston in the playoffs the Bulls could be one of the top four or five teams in the East.  In the end I am not sure they have the talent to run with Boston, Cleveland, or Orlando though.

The Oklahoma City Thunder’s young talent is a year older and a year closer to being a playoff team.  Russell Westbrook was a pleasant surprise as a rookie for the Thunder last season and Jeff Green had a breakout season establishing himself as someone who can score in the league.  A key to this year’s success will be keeping Nenad Kristic healthy and productive.  With him in the lineup teams have to use someone to defend their big man which is something they have not had in a while.  They will also need to defend better than they did last season.

Players to Keep an Eye On

Look for Brook Lopez to be a breakout star this season.  He progressed nicely as the season went on and with Vince Carter playing in Orlando this year Lopez is going to be the guy they build the offense around.  Do not be surprised if he ends up being a 20/10 guy this season.

Aaron Brooks was huge in the playoffs for the Rockets last spring and with Tracy McGrady M. I. A. and in decline the Rockets are going to be in need of someone to pick up the scoring in the early going.  Look for Brooks to break out and average at least 18 to 20 a game this season.

With Michael Beasley being insterted into the starting lineup over Udonis Haslem this year look for him to breakout now that he should be getting 35 minutes per game as opposed to the 25 he got off the bench last season.  As long as he keeps his crap together he has the talent to average 20 a night.

Ryan Anderson is going to get a ton of open looks with a beast like Dwight Howard manning the post.  Given that he is expected to start for the Magic this year he could very well double his scoring output of 7.5 points per game last year.

Marreese Speights just looked so much better in the summer camps this year as compared to last and scored 26 off the bench in the Sixers’ season opener.  If he steps up his rebounding numbers he will take the starting job away from Samuel Dalembert by the end of the year.

Greg Oden looks to be in the best shape he has been in since being drafted.  This could finally be the year he breaks through.  If he stays healthy expect him to be amongst the league leaders in blocks and rebounds.  The scoring numbers probably will not be there for him since they do not really need him to score and, at best, will be third option when on the floor.

It looks as though this could finally be the year Andrea Bargnani breaks out as a big time scorer in the league.  Look for him to drop at least 20 a night on opponents this season.

Rookies to Watch

Tyreke Evans is going to struggle with his shooting early on as he adjusts to the NBA game but I like a lot of the other things he brings to the table in terms of his size and length at the point.  Even as he struggles with his shooting he should still give the Kings 10 to 15 a night and be a versatile play maker for them.

Jonny Flynn won the starting job in Minnesota and should give the Wolves 15 to 18 points a night.  I am just not sure I like him as a point guard though.  He just seems like more of a scorer than a play maker to me.

I am kind of on the fence with Stephen Curry.  A lot will depend on whether Monta Ellis gets over his hurt feelings or not this year.  If all goes well Curry should be a mid-teens per night guy scoring-wise.  His point skills are still a bit lacking though.

Ty Lawson will give the Nuggets a spark off the bench.  Look for him to score 10 to 12 a night to go along with a handful of assists.  He is probably never going to be a great shooter in the league but he has the quickness to beat most guys off the dribble and he will be a nice little play maker in transition for the Nuggets.

DeJuan Blair has looked tremendous in pre-season and could give the Spurs 10 to 12 points and seven or eight boards a night off the bench.  So far he looks to be the steal of this year’s draft.

Wait ‘Til Next Year

These are rookies teams should not expect a lot from this season.

I was going to put Blake Griffin in the rookies to watch category until he came down with a stress fracture in his knee.  With that latest development it is hard to imagine he is going to see tons of playing time until January or so.

Hasheem Thabeet just has bust written all over him.  He’ll stick in the league for several years simply because he is a 7-footer who can block shots and rebound, but, he lacks the strength and toughness to dominate in the league.  Nor does he have any real post moves to speak of.

I will be shocked if James Harden plays enough to average more than 8 to 10 points a game off the bench.  I like his game quite a bit but with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green, and Nenad Kristic they do not need another scorer in the lineup.  With the Thunder giving up well over 100 points per game last season they need Thabo Sefolosha’s ability to guard perimeter scorers in the line up.  Sefolosha gives the Thunder a specific skill they needed adding Harden’s scoring would be a luxury and not a necessity if they want to make a serious run at respectability this season.  Unless someone like Durant or Green goes down to injury one should not expect Harden to get more than 20 minutes a night.

I do not see Jordan Hill playing a lot either with David Lee and Al Harrington entrenched at the big man positions in the front court.

I would not expect a lot out of DeMar DeRozan simply because, at best, he is going to be the fourth option behind Bargnani, Bosh, and Turkoglu as long as he stays in the starting lineup.  The shots simply are not going to be there for him to score more than 8 to 10 points a game.

Gerald Henderson is an amazing athlete, but he is on the small side and when opposing defenders realize he cannot go left it will be all over for him this season.  He went as high as he did in the draft because he is an amazing athlete and got a lot of hype while at Duke.  His game needs a lot of work before he is ready to star in the league though.

I like Jrue Holiday’s size and length at the point for Philadelphia but he is going to need a year or two of seasoning before running a team in the NBA.